Category: Archive

By Hannah Martin

*This article has previously been published in The Re-View, 2014

Somalia’s lack of established central government since the fall of Siad Barre’s socialist government in 1991 has earned it the title of #1 on the Failed State Index. The country has drifted in and out of famine and war since it gained independence in 1960, and to make matters worse, since 9/11 it has been considered a hotbed for terrorist activity. But how much has American foreign policy played a part in the radicalisation of pockets of the Somali population?

In 2006 the Islamic courts of Somalia joined forces to form the Islamic Courts Union. The Union began to provide health care, education and rule of law to Somalia on a scale greater than anything that had been witnessed since the failure of the state. Rape and robbery decreased rapidly, and areas previously under the control of corrupt warlords with a tendency to withhold aid were suddenly provided with some sense of security. People began to go about their daily lives in a relatively ‘normal’ fashion. This is not to say the Islamic Courts Union were upholding human rights – they had a violent militia who would impose Sharia law in a number of inhumane ways – but for a population who had lived through a vicious civil war, it was the next best thing.

But of course, no one expected America to appreciate an Islamic government. Before long the USA, led by the Bush Administration, had joined forces with ex-Somali warlords in an organisation ironically entitled the ‘Alliance Against Terrorism and the Restoration of Peace’ to expel the Islamic Courts Union. Just as things began to look up for Somalia, the USA began to bombard its people with bombs, heavy artillery and drones fired from neighbouring Kenya.

You can imagine what kind of effect that had on the USA’s popularity. Eight years on, Somalia is home to transnational terrorist organisation al-Shabaab, who claimed responsibility for the Westgate attack in September 2013 and are suspected to be to blame for a string of attacks in Kenya since. Al-Shabaab spits venomous threats towards the USA and in 2009 formally allied with al-Qaeda. I wonder when the USA will come to realise that for every innocent life blown apart by a drone, dozens more lives will become radicalised. It is not only immoral to bomb innocent victims in the name of a ‘War on Terror’, it is counter-productive and completely illogical.

Author Biography

Hannah Martin has recently graduated from the University of Leeds having completed BA International Relations. Hannah’s research interest include terrorism and political violence and African politics and Middle Eastern politics. Hannah is an intern for the Terrorism and Political Violence Association, a think-tank based in Leeds, as well as a volunteer research assistant for Against Violent Extremism.

*Cover image ‘Al-Shabaab Retreat from Mogadishu‘ by Africa Renewal

[In this article, guest contributor Piotr Kuzniatsou takes a look on the use and successes of social media for the promotion of civil society and describes them along his first-hand experiences in Belarus.]For a long time, civil society in general was in a state close to euphoria. The rise of social media was determined by the rapid development of the Internet, which, being beyond the control of any government, seemed to be a panacea for many ills and a versatile tool, that could give an impetus to the development of citizen activism across the globe.

Such hopes were based mainly on the notion that access to information, as well as the opportunity to speak freely for and to a large (or relatively large) audience, would solve a number of problems at once such as that of communication between citizens, self-organization, public control over the actions of the authorities, conducting outreach and information work, and more. “Receive information” and “carry information”; these two options seemed to be a magical formula to break the information ghetto, into which dictatorships and authoritarian regimes drive their people, and prevent their activation and strengthening.

A number of world events seemed to confirm these hopes and expectations. Unrest in Moldova, the revolution in Egypt, the role of social media during the “Arab Spring”, even the contribution of social networks in the “Occupy Wall Street” movement  – all these and many other examples spoke in favor of the fact that now people have a new tool for collective resistance.

Today, however, taking into account the experience of the last few years, the situation does not seem so shiny and clear, at least in Belarus and in the ex-Soviet area.

All attempts of civil activation of Belarusians in social networks collapsed, remaining non-mass and sluggish. The only exception is a burst of activity during the “silent revolution” in 2011, when young people, organized using the social network “VKontakte”, took to the streets en masse in order to remain silent and applause to express their protest against the economic crisis and “tightening of the screws” in their society. However, this case should be considered rather as an exception and will be discussed later on in this piece. In the other cases, numerous efforts of organizing seminars, training, round tables, master-classes etc. designed to equip public activists with new technologies, remained futile.

But what could be the reason for this sad state of affairs?

In many ways, the answer to this question lies on the surface. Much can be understood by a careful study of the current information war, waged by the Russian Federation against Ukraine in the social networks. The essence lies in the fact that the new technology in itself is not a panacea and not a magical formula. It is simply a tool and the formula for any societal action or change must be made up in each separate case.

This seems obvious but it is worth considering why we understand it in theory, but do not attach any importance to it in practice.

Social networks can only help develop civil society when the traditional society, which in this case is post-Soviet, atomized and has no horizontal connections, begins to understand and accept what the civil activists say in the social networks. When civil society is able to say something comprehensible and trustworthy for a majority, only then is the technical side of the question of any importance; convincing messages will be widely spread in the society, bypassing the state-controlled television.

If we do not see a burst of activity as a response to the efforts of activists in the social networks, it does not mean that the society is bad and it does not mean that the tools provided by Zuckerberg and others is not strong enough. These tools worked in Egypt and partly justified itself even in Belarus in 2011. It simply means that those who try to use the tools do not do it well enough.

Let’s return to 2011 – the only situation in the modern history of Belarus when social media helped civil society to organize itself for the challenge.

At that time, two trends were extremely strong in the Belarusian society. One of them was the strong economic crisis, which affected virtually everyone as three-time devaluation of the national currency caused a considerable drop in living standards. The second trend came after the brutal end of the presidential elections of 2010, which started a relative liberalization, let the majority of the population feel quite freely, be active, and finished with unprecedented repressions. Many felt disappointment, impotent anger and depression.

The offer of “silent protests” had its time and place. On the one hand, it gave people the opportunity to express their attitude to what was happening in the country. On the other hand, the form itself – to go out and keep quiet, without any violations – inspired hopes that this one time the authorities would not be able to find opportunities for repression and suppression. That is, the attractive formula of behavior suggested in the right moment, when the protest activity of the society was at a high stage, led to the desired result: people went out into the streets.

Another example is the current information confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Russia, conducting a campaign of outright disinformation and “black” propaganda, made a bet on a clear and long-known mental imprint of the total population of the former Soviet Union: fear and hatred of fascism. Seeking to provoke rejection of the Ukrainian events, Russian PR first of all, without going into details, called the Ukrainians “fascists” and very quickly achieved the desired effect. “Mental imprints” reside in everyone, and when activated can instantly become topics that people hear and believe in.

In both cases, the success of information work was determined by the fact that necessary and desired information was spread in the right way, time and place. Russian propaganda operates through all possible channels of communication (equally through TV and social networks), as Russian resources allow it, but in case of the “silent revolution” social media was enough; the necessary message at the necessary moment was immediately perceived by the people and disseminated further by them.

These examples are only a small part of a large number of situations that can be carefully studied on how to successfully use social networks in public activities. But detailed analysis of any of these situations will lead to only one conclusion: at its core, social media differs only from any other method of disseminating information by the greater extent of inclusivity of the end user. They have endless opportunities for generating one’s own or responding to someone else’s content by comments and “likes”. However, despite all this, social networks remain simply a tool for disseminating information and the implementation of information campaigns; the result of these campaigns will always depend upon the quality of disseminated information and upon the successful campaign planning.

But what does this mean in practical terms for Belarusian civil society, for partner and donor organizations working with Belarusian NGOs?

It means that, for maximum effect, it is necessary to redesign many of the activities related to the introduction of new technologies. It is necessary to minimize the number of seminars and training on getting acquainted with social networks. Today social networks are so simple that almost anyone can get acquainted with them with minimal help. Moreover, everyone who needs it has most likely found help already. Instead of focusing on promotion of only the technical side, it is necessary to pay attention to the following areas:

1)     Investment in special studies aimed at the identification of the most pressing topics for the  broader public, the most wide-spread “mental imprints” and selection of the most suitable strategy for the information work of NGOs from them;

2)     Investments into professional development of marketing campaigns for NGOs, information campaigns, clever high-quality messages based on the expectations of citizens and on professional “smart” presentation styles.

With the results of such research in hand and with the opportunity to order such analytics, mature and interested non-governmental organizations will have the opportunity to plan and, most importantly, successfully implement information, marketing, protest or public campaigns. This will mean a transition to a whole new stage of development of information work for the Belarusian public sector.

Author Biography

Piotr Kuzniatsou is a Belarusian civic and media activist from Gomel. He is the Head of the Board of Establishment “Center of Regional Development GDF”, founder of the most popular Gomel regional independent on-line newspaper “Strong News” and analyst for the regional think tank “Strategic Thought”.

You can also find him on Twitter (en), (ru), and Facebook

*Pictures by Virre Livendil Annergard and KP M

This research analysis focuses on the use of social media in Indonesia by extremists. Young people are increasingly being recruited through Facebook and Twitter to join their movement. This piece will illustrate that in the same way that social media can be used to spread hate it can be used to promote tolerance.

How is social media used in this context?

Indonesia is one of the world’s most populous countries with over 242 million people. It also has the largest Muslim population in the world living within its territory. It is estimated that one in four citizens have access to Facebook; this is mainly because phones in Indonesia are cheap and have fast internet connections. Muhammad Najib, an Indonesia parliamentarian stated that “a huge amount of fundamentalist communications comes through Facebook and Twitter. This is a new generation, all holding a mobile phone.”

Young people are increasingly being contacted by terrorists via social media for recruitment. Social media sites such as Facebook and twitter are some of the tools terrorists use to expand their criminal activity according to the Indonesian police. Other tools discovered by the police include online games, propaganda videos on Youtube and video calls used to purchase weapons.

Over the past few years the use of social media by extremists for communication, training and online fundraising has increased. Interestingly enough women have an important role in this sort of organization as they help to create alliances through arranged marriages, serving as couriers to contact members in prison, and carrying out business to support organisations financially.

The Indonesian government has recognized that governmental institutions are vitally important in countering terrorism and established the National Anti-Terrorism Agency (BNPT) in 2010, and heightened police roles.

What are documented cases of radicalisation through social media?

Petrus Reinhard Golose, director of operations at BNPT mentioned an interesting case where social media was used for extremist purposes: “in the Marriott bombing of 2009, the suicide bomber was monitored by his group via video call out of fear that he would change his mind.”

Surya Saputra, a senior policeman in Bogor, Indonesia, stated that the most recent terrorist acts, such as the 2010 attack on the police in Solo and the 2011 bombing of the Cirebon police mosque, were organized through the internet. He also mentioned that: “some jihadist websites even provide information in Bahasa Indonesia [Indonesian language] on cyber-military training, so people don’t have to fly all the way to Afghanistan or the Philippines anymore”.

Social media and mobile phone texts can also be used to spread misleading information. In September 2011 rumours broke out that Christians captured and tortured a Muslim motorcyclist taxi driver to death in Ambon, Indonesia. This led to widespread anger, with vehicles and houses vandalised after the rumour had spread by phone messages, Facebook and Twitter. Seven people died as a result; in reality the motorcyclist had died in a traffic accident. After this rumour spread, sites such as Arrahmah.com, a website funded by a leader of Islamist terrorist organization Jemmah Islamiyah (JI), started to display messages asking for additional fighters and better weapons.

A few days later in another city a Christian man with mental problems stabbed three people. Again, rumours spread by social media claimed that attacks against Muslims were being organized. In retaliation a large group of Muslims started stopping and interrogating drivers on a main street about their religion and the reason for their travelling. Two Christians were stabbed and over 1000 people went to a police school for protection to avoid the anti-Christian attacks that never happened.

How is social media used to counter terrorism:

In the same way that extremists use social media to spark anger and organize attacks, civil society groups are countering violence on social media as well. An example of these groups is the multi-religious group, called Provocateurs for Peace led by Pastor Jacky Manuputty who have started using phone messages and social media to counter allegations and disprove rumours.

The Indonesian government is also blocking websites that are considered to be extremist. Although this effort is being made, there are still many sites online that promote Jihad. Slamet Effendy, a leader of Nadhatul Ulama, one of the largest Muslim organizations in Indonesia, mentioned that social media can be used to promote tolerance: “Terrorism in Indonesia, can only be eradicated if religious understanding is in line with the state, which advocates pluralism and a society founded on justice and welfare. Comprehensive efforts to develop good relationships between religious communities are needed at the grassroots level”.

Another way to promote tolerance is the use of respected religious leaders to present moderate interpretations of Islam and the use of pop culture.Ahmad Dhani, an Indonesian pop star sold millions of copies of his anti-extremist song “Laskar Cinta  (Army of Love)”.

What are the demographics and usage of facebook, twitter, etc, or the most used social media platform?

As of June 2013, Indonesia had nearly 48 million Facebook users placing the country 4^th in the top ten Facebook countries. The capital Jakarta is the 2^nd city with the most Facebook users.

Jakarta is also considered to be the tweet capital of the world with the most Twitter users of any city. Statistics from the end of 2012 until March 2013 estimates the number of users at 29 million positioning Indonesia 5th in the world with the most Twitter users.

Linkedin’s official blog estimates as of February 2014 that Indonesia surpassed 2 million users.

*Cover image ‘Berkibarlah benderaku di angkasa‘  by Yulin Masdakaty

The World is a dank and dark place, states are falling apart or already have and the highest authorities are run by corporations. Independent agents battle for information in digital spaces only to sell them to the highest bidder while climate change has severely damaged vast landscapes and made wastelands of others. Social and racial tensions are running higher.

Sounds familiar?

The world just described is that of the pen and paper role play game Shadowrun (1^st ed.: 1989), a dark future/cyber punk imagining of today’s world, taking place in the year 2076 where the races of fantastic lore have re-emerged through human mutation, leading to Czech elves, Philippine orcs, Mexican dwarves and the such. In that world, one of the highest global authorities is the Corporate Court that was set up by corporations for corporations and is situated in Earth orbit. The Mars and Lunar colonies seem to do well.

If we are honest, aside from the fantastic element, that world doesn’t seem too far-fetched, does it?

The world seems indeed to be spinning a bit faster now than it did some years ago, borders look a lot less fixed than before, national courts are becoming corrective policy makers by preventing the antics of overambitious governments all over the globe (see: the EU, Turkey, the Philippines) and, well: Russia.

Still, in a way it feels like we are looking at our own two feet more often than not, inspiration is usually derived by what needs doing over what might be possible. As much as I am a fan of Realpolitik, saving the world while trying to make the numbers work and being realistic about expectations, a big picture sense of direction would be nice once in a while.

There is a famous little video in the internet in which astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson explains the interconnectedness between technological and societal progress and the importance of provision for funding for space programs (the more romantic among us might add this video featuring CASSINI lead Carolyn Porco).

When we observe what is happening today in terms of technologies, societies and the mainly philosophical bigger picture, it seems impossible not to think in alternatives, not to think back, forward or parallel. We are as much living in tomorrow’s past as much as we are in yesterday’s tomorrow and both of them are connected to what Neil deGrasse Tyson talked about in his short speech: the ability to dream.

In the quarrels and quandaries of everyday life, trying to save the world inch by an inch, we sometimes forget that that inch is actually becoming quite a lot over time and the longer we inch forward, the further we go ahead. More realistically it is two steps forward and one step back, if at all, but whatever happens will only become clear after the fact. There is good cause to be sceptic about the future, if you want we could say that Orwell’s 1984 is finally here (if a bit late) and Aldeous Huxley’s brave new world seems near enough. When activist and science fiction author Cory Doctorow proclaimed in 2011 that “We have to win the copyright war to keep the internet […] free and open.”, his prediction seemed rather grim and Skynet right around the corner.

While it is true that those with interests in obtaining information pushed towards getting the legal tools to get them whenever they could, it is similarly true that the awareness towards the importance of politics and policies in the digital sphere has not gone unnoticed. Politics is a contest of opinions and other than what we may have thought in 2011, it is an active contest; be it the Philippine Constitutional Court protecting free speech in the internet, reason-less data-retention being prevented in the EU or the Turkish Constitutional Court declaring the censorship of Youtube and Twitter by the Turkish government illegal, whatever horrible things we see in the future, they do not go unopposed. (Erdogan didn’t care about the court’s decision, but that is the topic for a whole different article.)

In the light of all this, science fiction and (to a slightly lesser degree) fantasy can not only provide us with much deserved escapism and metaphors to what is happening today, but also in doing so show us alternatives to what is and what might be. It is not by accident, that inventions originating in science fiction come back to us as ‘reality’ sooner than we might have thought possible. Please find a number of exhibits here and here.

From a point of view of politics, space was always connected to potential military uses, the space race driven by the cold war and even the neatly practical GPS has military uses. Honestly though: What hasn’t? Any new technology is a tool that can be used for whatever use we can come up with; the internet can be used to organize revolutions, love-lives and the surveillance of both, wheels can get food to those in need or work on a tank and printing presses can bring you hate-speech, wise words or solace. Who are we to judge which of these are the important ones?

The difference between dystopia and utopia is many a time only one based in the interpretation of what is now and that makes it all the more important what we dream of. We can only create what we can think possible and our imagination is fuelled by what surrounds us. The images of Felix Baumgartners’ parachute jump from the edge of space were powerful, but mind you, that was the cosmic equivalent of jumping from your doorstep back inside. Surely, the first man on the moon cannot be repeated, but it seems more than over-due to freshen up on our dreams of the future and actually go back out there – and be it just to dream together with our neighbours watching it.

You never know what it is good for and that’s exactly the point: Go dream and see what happens!

Since last year over a million people have participated in protests all over Brazil to show their dissatisfaction with the excessive expenditures on the World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics.   And, with only two days to go before the opening match of the football World Cup between Brazil and Croatia, protests are continuing in many of Brazil’s major cities. On Monday the 9^th of June, Brazilian riot police used tear gas to disperse protestors from the Ana Rosa metro station located in the centre of São Paulo.

The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff stated that the government would “fully guarantee people’s security” and that violent protests interrupting the World Cup would not be allowed. Indeed, the Brazilian government has launched its biggest mobilization of armed forces since 1950 with 30,000 military personnel patrolling the national border of 17,000 km to guarantee safety during the World Cup.

The metro workers of São Paulo called the latest of many protests on the 5^th of June, demanding a salary increase of 12.2%. In return the employing company has offered a rise of only 8.7%. Due to the protest traffic jams in São Paulo, considered to be one of the most congested cities in the world, got even worse with over 200 km of jams being reported during rush hour on the 6^th and 7^th of June.

Concerns are being raised about the continuation of this protest in particular as, if it continues until Thursday, the opening match of the World Cup will be affected, especially as the stadium, Arena Corinthians, is located on the periphery of São Paulo and access to it without public transport will be difficult.

The president of the metro workers’ union, Altino Prazeres, has stated that: “it is not our intention to continue the strike into the World Cup”, but declared that Såo Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin is “throwing gasoline in the fire” after the company that runs the metro sent out 60 resignation notices to staff members that had allegedly taken part in public disorder through protesting.

Life, work and traffic in São Paulo

In a dynamic and vibrant but crowded city such as São Paulo most people live in the outskirts so they depend heavily on public transport to travel to and from home. Many travel over an hour to reach their destination on a good day, so a disruption of public services has a huge impact on the average worker.

Before moving back to Europe, I myself lived and worked for a number of years in São Paulo, and struggled many times to get home from my job in the centre the city. During the 2013 protests I would often have to wait over an hour for a bus that was stuck behind protests, or having to take an alternate route consisting of a subway trip, a train journey and a bus ride just to get back to my neighbourhood. On one occasion that I managed to catch a direct bus home, it had to suddenly stop because protestors had closed off a main highway. I had to get off the bus and walk home along the highway with the other passengers.

Reasons behind the protests

The protests began last year when citizens in São Paulo took to the streets and started to demonstrate against a 10% increase in bus fares. This encouraged people to speak out about their dissatisfaction with the Brazilian government.

Last year, as sports correspondent of The Nation, Dave Zirin, reported: “The financial capital of São Paulo was brought to a standstill. The political capital, Brasília, saw protesters climb onto the roof of the National Congress building. In Rio, several thousand marched on legendary Maracaña Stadium, the epicenter of the 2016 Summer Olympics, at the start of the Confederations Cup”.

When it comes to the World Cup people are protesting against the extravagant use of public resources. According to the federal government 25,8 billion Reals (an estimated US $11 billion) were spent on the World Cup. This amount is ten times higher than the estimated amount of 2.5 billion Reals (around US$1.1 billion) in 2007 when Brazil was elected to host the cup. At that time it was predicted that the money would be primarily raised through private funding.

The 2014 World Cup is considered to be the most expensive, and the most lucrative, in the competition’s history. South Africa, the country where the event was last held in 2010, spent over US$3 billion in preparing for the event.

Brazilians are demanding more access and investment for education and health facilities. More schools and teachers are needed throughout the country to give poor children an opportunity to break the vicious cycle of poverty. The health system also needs improving; people spend hours in queues and sometimes don’t even get the chance to see a doctor. I myself had to go to a public hospital on one occasion; I waited for 8 hours to see a doctor and left without being attended. This is the reality for many Brazilians; those that can afford it all have private health insurance.

Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars compares the protests in Brazil and those that occurred in Egypt and Turkey: “Although parallels with mass demonstration that have shaken Egypt and Turkey are inevitable, this is not Tahrir or Taksim Square.

“Brazilians did not take to the street to overthrow an authoritarian government. Having tasted and liked the fruits of almost two decades of democracy with economic stability, they are now asking for more democracy and better outcomes from a political system that has become increasingly dysfunctional and incapable of producing concrete solutions to real problems related to people’s quality of life in a stalled economy.”

It remains to be seen if these latest protests disrupt the opening game of the World Cup and if the Brazilian government will be able to keep its promise of keeping order on its cities’ streets. But it is certain that despite their love for football, many Brazilians will not simply forget what they have been protesting for.

—

*Cover image ‘Brazil world cup 1982 – 01’ by Oyosan

Since last year over a million people have participated in protests all over Brazil to show their dissatisfaction with the excessive expenditures on the World Cup and the 2016 Rio Olympics.   And, with only two days to go before the opening match of the football World Cup between Brazil and Croatia, protests are continuing in many of Brazil’s major cities. On Monday the 9^th of June, Brazilian riot police used tear gas to disperse protestors from the Ana Rosa metro station located in the centre of São Paulo.

The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff stated that the government would “fully guarantee people’s security” and that violent protests interrupting the World Cup would not be allowed. Indeed, the Brazilian government has launched its biggest mobilization of armed forces since 1950 with 30,000 military personnel patrolling the national border of 17,000 km to guarantee safety during the World Cup.

The metro workers of São Paulo called the latest of many protests on the 5^th of June, demanding a salary increase of 12.2%. In return the employing company has offered a rise of only 8.7%. Due to the protest traffic jams in São Paulo, considered to be one of the most congested cities in the world, got even worse with over 200 km of jams being reported during rush hour on the 6^th and 7^th of June.

Concerns are being raised about the continuation of this protest in particular as, if it continues until Thursday, the opening match of the World Cup will be affected, especially as the stadium, Arena Corinthians, is located on the periphery of São Paulo and access to it without public transport will be difficult.

The president of the metro workers’ union, Altino Prazeres, has stated that: “it is not our intention to continue the strike into the World Cup”, but declared that Såo Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin is “throwing gasoline in the fire” after the company that runs the metro sent out 60 resignation notices to staff members that had allegedly taken part in public disorder through protesting.

Life, work and traffic in São Paulo

In a dynamic and vibrant but crowded city such as São Paulo most people live in the outskirts so they depend heavily on public transport to travel to and from home. Many travel over an hour to reach their destination on a good day, so a disruption of public services has a huge impact on the average worker.

Before moving back to Europe, I myself lived and worked for a number of years in São Paulo, and struggled many times to get home from my job in the centre the city. During the 2013 protests I would often have to wait over an hour for a bus that was stuck behind protests, or having to take an alternate route consisting of a subway trip, a train journey and a bus ride just to get back to my neighbourhood. On one occasion that I managed to catch a direct bus home, it had to suddenly stop because protestors had closed off a main highway. I had to get off the bus and walk home along the highway with the other passengers.

Reasons behind the protests

The protests began last year when citizens in São Paulo took to the streets and started to demonstrate against a 10% increase in bus fares. This encouraged people to speak out about their dissatisfaction with the Brazilian government.

Last year, as sports correspondent of The Nation, Dave Zirin, reported: “The financial capital of São Paulo was brought to a standstill. The political capital, Brasília, saw protesters climb onto the roof of the National Congress building. In Rio, several thousand marched on legendary Maracaña Stadium, the epicenter of the 2016 Summer Olympics, at the start of the Confederations Cup”.

When it comes to the World Cup people are protesting against the extravagant use of public resources. According to the federal government 25,8 billion Reals (an estimated US $11 billion) were spent on the World Cup. This amount is ten times higher than the estimated amount of 2.5 billion Reals (around US$1.1 billion) in 2007 when Brazil was elected to host the cup. At that time it was predicted that the money would be primarily raised through private funding.

The 2014 World Cup is considered to be the most expensive, and the most lucrative, in the competition’s history. South Africa, the country where the event was last held in 2010, spent over US$3 billion in preparing for the event.

Brazilians are demanding more access and investment for education and health facilities. More schools and teachers are needed throughout the country to give poor children an opportunity to break the vicious cycle of poverty. The health system also needs improving; people spend hours in queues and sometimes don’t even get the chance to see a doctor. I myself had to go to a public hospital on one occasion; I waited for 8 hours to see a doctor and left without being attended. This is the reality for many Brazilians; those that can afford it all have private health insurance.

Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars compares the protests in Brazil and those that occurred in Egypt and Turkey: “Although parallels with mass demonstration that have shaken Egypt and Turkey are inevitable, this is not Tahrir or Taksim Square.

“Brazilians did not take to the street to overthrow an authoritarian government. Having tasted and liked the fruits of almost two decades of democracy with economic stability, they are now asking for more democracy and better outcomes from a political system that has become increasingly dysfunctional and incapable of producing concrete solutions to real problems related to people’s quality of life in a stalled economy.”

It remains to be seen if these latest protests disrupt the opening game of the World Cup and if the Brazilian government will be able to keep its promise of keeping order on its cities’ streets. But it is certain that despite their love for football, many Brazilians will not simply forget what they have been protesting for.

—

*Cover image ‘Brazil world cup 1982 – 01’ by Oyosan

First of all, the author would like to pay a tribute to all of those brave souls that faced the most terrible horrors of the battle and gave the best of their effort, many paying with their lives, for the sake of freedom on that important day, making history, in an admirable deployment of courage and tenacity. Also the author would like to pay his respects and declare his admiration to those brave soldiers, capable of doing what others would not.

5th of June 1944. Much of Europe has been suffering under the hard rule of German occupation for four long years. Terrible crimes were being committed by the then German regime against civilians and allied soldiers alike. But despite the length and the degree of the iron fist and the dark night, the light of freedom is about to come from the shores of the English Channel.

D-Day or ‘Operation Overlord’ is widely regarded as one of the most impressive, ambitious and most meticulously planned military operations of all time. Its planning required a huge amount of careful preparation for the allied forces and meant a race against time for the Germans to prepare its defence. The allies had the experience of Dieppe in 1942 as a basis to select the type of ideal terrain to disembark (thus Normandy) and also the proximity of Calais to the German main centres of supply and a place that was easy to defend (Murray & Millet, 1998)[i]. Securing the beachhead required a flow of troops to reinforce it and also a need to cut off the routes that the Germans could use to send reinforcements and counterattack. What saved the day in that sense was the utilization of air power, both strategic and tactical, in order to destroy the nodes and lines of communication and to deny the possibility of any counterattack[ii]. The deployment of paratroopers to secure the flanks and important objectives was also an important tactic employed by the allies (Murray & Millet, 1998). Naval power played an essential role in transporting the troops to destinations, attacking the beach defences amongst many other tasks[iii].

The strategic and tactical preparations were also a nightmare in themselves, following Murray & Millet (1998). Firstly, the reaching of an agreement on the plan itself given the many different wishes of the allied commanders and politicians was no mean feat in and of itself. But secondly, keeping the Germans unaware of the scope and precise area of operations was an even greater challenge. In this case, the solution came by putting the best allied General, George Patton, to command a fake invasion army – literally a fake army with derelict assets – that would be ‘threatening’ the pass of Calais. Thirdly, the British and American commanders showed little or no interest in learning from the other commanders with experience in amphibious landings in the Pacific which is remarkable given that their task involved executing such a large number of landings well and also avoiding the obstacles placed by the Germans. Some outright rejected specialized vehicles that could have saved lives, such as at Omaha beach (Murray & Millet, 1998).

But despite the odds and the many difficulties faced that day, in the end D-Day was a major turning point for the definitive outcome of the Second World War. First of all, the allies had returned to Europe and were able to put an end to the iron fist regime of the Germans: after all, France and later on Western Europe were liberated (Murray & Millet, 1998). Also, Germany was weakened and directly threatened not only by the physical presence of allied troops on continental soil, but also by the Russian advances in the East (The D Day operations were the begged for “second front” that Stalin had asked of the allies in order to deviate German soldiers from the combats in Russia). Victory, of course, was not as fast as many would had expected after ‘Operation Overlord’, taking 9 months after the landings and the famous Battle of the Ardennes to stop the Third Reich once and for all (Murray & Millet, 1998; Adams, 2010).

Murray & Millet (1998) go even further, stating that ‘Operation Overlord’ formed the basis for future peace in Europe and the victory of Democracy against communism in the Cold War thus shaping the political future of Europe for the next decades. But did D-day have as much of a strategic impact as they claim? That the defeat of Germany was a certainty after Overlord is beyond any question, despite the long and painful remaining 9 months of war. But, what if for example, Operation Overlord had failed? After all, such a failure was, according to Stafford (2004), a highly likely possibility. So much so that General Eisenhower had a press release prepared in case the operation failed and another proposing a full-scale retreat of the American troops at Omaha Beach which would have compromised the whole operation.

In a more strategic sense, Staffor (2004), remarks that, had Operation Overlord failed, the allies would not have enjoyed the possibility of executing a similar operation in a future. For the Germans a failure would have meant a little respite and a pyrrhic victory: the German armies would have focused on the East but by that time the Red Army was already strong enough to be able to defeat Germany. Furthermore, it would have advanced to the River Rhine thus occupying the whole of Germany or worse; it could even have been able to advance until the English Channel and the North Sea[iv]. All of Europe could have been under the rule of another iron fist of different colour, the UK would have remained alone while the US would have retreated to isolationism once again (Safford, 2004).

Brinkley (2014) in turn, points out that if Operation Overlord would have failed, the massive resources gathered for the first attempt wouldn’t have been available for a second attempt; there was no back-up plan nor a new prospective landing zone for a second attempt. The difference in his appreciation is that Germany would have remained as a large belligerent force with one front less to worry about, able to develop the technology to repel the strategic raids made by the allies (the only choice after an eventual defeat on D-Day) and the Holocaust would have known no end at all. Even worse, Germany and the Soviet Union could have made an agreement, in a similar way to the First World War[v].

The prospectives of such scenarios, were of little chance but were by no means impossible and after all, Western Europe (and the whole World) was saved on that Summer day in June, 1944. Now, the real question is did Operation Overlord alone shape the outcome of the war and the nature of the following decades to come? The answer is undoubtedly yes. But we must remember that even if D-Day was an important milestone, it is also the result of a war that was itself the direct offspring of the First World War. Many, if not all of the belligerents, either in nature or strategic strength were so due to the consequences of that war.

The intention here, and as the title itself suggests, is to explain how the First World War led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and of communist totalitarianism through the epic and tragic events of Operation Overlord. In short, D-Day as we know it, with its good and fortunate outcome, could have never have happened if the First World War had had a different outcome[vi]. Furthermore, an operation such as Overlord would have taken place with different players and for a different cause, and probably in another scenario. Without a doubt, the First World War shaped the World in which both the Second World War and Operation Overlord took place – a fact that for different reasons often tends to be forgotten.

Welcome then, to the GPPW special series on the First World War and its impact on the history and geopolitics of Europe and the world.

Sources

Adams, M (2010). The Aftermath of D – Day. In: Humanities 360 – World Wars. Retrieved from: http://www.humanities360.com/index.php/the-aftermath-of-d-day-19906/ on 05.06.2014

Brinkley, D (2014). The Longest Day. In Time: D – Day – June 6, 1944. Retrieved from: http://time.com/102141/dday-longest-day/ on 05.06.2014

Dr Stafford, D (2004). What if D – Day had failed? In: BBC News. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/3732417.stm on 05.06.2014

Laurenceau, M (n.a). Summary of the Normandy Landings. In: DDay – Overorld.com. The Battle of Normandy. http://www.dday-overlord.com/eng/summary_dday.htm

Murray, W. & Millet, A. R (2005). A War to be Won [La Guerra que Habia que Ganar]. Barcelona, Spain: Critica.

—

[i] For those interested in having a good overview of D-Day take a look at this outstanding source: Laurenceau, M (n.a). Summary of the Normandy Landings. In: DDay – Overorld.com. The Battle of Normandy. http://www.dday-overlord.com/eng/summary_dday.htm

[ii] This, according to Murray & Millet (1998) has to do with working with a wide time window prior to the operation and covering the entirety of France to avoid any hinting. The utilization of air power also implied a direct attack against the beach defences made by the Germans.

[iii] More than 7000 vessels and warships took part in the operation, according to Murray and Millet (1998).

[iv] The Red Army could have even advanced until Paris.

[v] This event is not so unthinkable if we bear in mind that the possibility of Germany being able to focus on one single front could have brought the events in the East to a stalemate and draw thus an agreement between the two dictatorships as another scenario.

[vi] Even if it failed, the general conditions in both political and strategic sense were simply there.

—

*Cover image ‘D-Day’ by Bill Damon

By Seema Habib

This analytical piece by Seema Habib, a graduate of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy from Afghanistan, investigates the factors that are often cited as reasons for the failure of the Afghan state, and questions whether or not it really has failed.

States have emerged in different forms throughout history, from the ancient Egyptian time to the city-states of Greece, from the Roman Empire to the nation states of Westphalia. Historically, states were responsible for the security in their territory and were productive in providing basic services to the public, whether on a large or small scale. Ever since the colonial period, the state has always been authoritative over the population living within its territory and have continuously exercised extensive power over territories under their control. Nowadays, since the emergence of the concept of a sovereign state, states enjoy equal opportunity to represent their population, geography and are generally considered immune from third party intervention.

Indeed, states are the main and sole actors in world politics and international relations. They are the ultimate end of power in decision-makings in their territory, but there are some situations where the existence of such a powerful actor is deemed vulnerable or incomplete. There are certain criteria for a state to fulfill in order to legitimize its existence; inability in their operation can lead to its complete collapse or its partial functionality. These states are defined as failing, fragile, or failed. After a prolonged history of war and civil unrest, Afghanistan has been counted among failing or even sometimes failed states.

Notion of a failed state

States are considered to be the main actor in world politics and international relations. Their existence marks the survival of the international relations. In this modern era, there have been concerns over the collapse of this concept. In the course of recent times, some states were marked as “collapsed states”, whereas others were defined as failed, failing, or fragile states. The failed state concept was first promoted by both Tony Blair’s government in the UK and the administration of George W. Bush in the US (Warnock, 2008. These states were often associated with their inability to enforce laws and to use legitimate force over their populations (Risse & Lehmkuhl, 2006). In one of the articles published through Radio Free Europe, Abbas Djavadi defines the term failed state as, “If a government can’t physically control its territory, has no, or only a limited, monopoly on the legitimate use of force, cannot adopt and enforce decision binding for the whole country is unable to provide basic public services and cannot represent the whole country in the international community, that state is a failed state.” (Djavadi, 2009) Also, a definition by World News glossary of terms quoted by Mustafa Qasim defines Fragile, failing, or weak states as states where the national or central government ceases to retain control over much of the country due to a prolonged civil war or political crisis. Moreover, failed states cannot provide basic security or public services to their citizens, and corruption is present on a large scale. It is also concerned with increased criminal violence (Mustafa). By considering these definitions, certain elements come to the forum that define the prospects of a failing or failed state. In the next section, different indicators of a failed or failing state are examined to assess where Afghanistan stands in terms of failing or failed states.

Examination of Indicators in the context of Afghanistan

The first indicator of a failed state is insecurity where a state fails to provide security to its citizens. If a state is unable to establish an atmosphere of security, it is considered to have lost its legitimacy and power to offer security to the population living under it (Rotberg, 2003). Despite the huge support by its international partners, the current Afghan government was unable to provide security to its citizens, with insecurity being on the rise (Afghan-Women- Council, 2007). An increase in insurgency is also considered to be a qualifying sign for failing states, as it is often connected to inability of the government in its taken measures ensuring safety of its citizens.

Corruption is another criterion to assess whether a state is failed or not. It is obvious that corruption exists in many states, but in failed states it is widespread, entrenched, and is found on an unusually large scale. Robert Rotbergconcludes that “widespread petty or lubricating corruption as a matter of course, but escalating levels of venal corruption mark failed states” (Rotberg, 2003). Based on the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International, Afghanistan is among the most vulnerable countries to corruption and is listed as one of the most bottom ranking countries in terms of the seriousness of the corruption. It is ranked 175th along North Korea and Somalia countries and is filed as the most corrupt country in the world (Transparency-International, 2013). In 2010, the Integrity Watch Afghanistan conducted a survey that covered the 32 provinces of Afghanistan; it concluded that corruption is perceived as the third biggest problem by the respondents (Integrity-Watch- Afghanistan, 2010). Now, if we look into the indicators, excessive levels of corruption in Afghanistan may bring it in the category of the failed states.

The third indicator for failed states is that it offers unequal economic opportunities only for a few privileged. Those around the ruler or the ruling cluster get the most from it and they become richer, while the less fortunate become poorer. According to Robert Rotbergin failed states, “the nation state’s responsibility to maximize the well being and personal prosperity of all citizens is conspicuously absent, if it ever existed” (Rotberg, 2003). It has been obvious in Afghanistan that the family members of the ruling circle have benefited the most from the economic ventures in the country. Mahmood Karzai, the brother of the president, gained millions of dollars from the financial resources of Kabul Bank, a private bank in Kabul, which was later declared insolvent. Its insolvency was due to irregularities of its financial resources and illegal investments in which the brother of Hamid Karzai was also considered to be involved (Higgins, 2010). All of its stakeholders’ assets were frozen except Mahmood Karzai’s due to his support from the government (Bloomberg, 2010). There are many other cases where family members of Afghan incumbents were privileged by economic gains through government sources.

The fourth indicator of failed states is the loss of control over its territory, fully or partially. Robert Rotbergstates that “in contrast to the strong states, failed states cannot control their borders. They lose authority over sections of territory. Often, the expression of official power is limited to a capital city and one or more ethnically specific zones” (Rotberg, 2003). This is also happening in Afghanistan where central authority has no control over some parts of the rural areas. The Taliban, warlords, and tribal leaders rule several parts of the country. The authority of the central government barely extends outside Kabul and other key parts of country (Djavadi, 2009). The organization of Fund for Peace reports that the Afghan government lacks authority in the areas where drug lords operate. This confirms the fragility of the Afghan state in its lack of a strong presence in the country.

Another indicator of state failure is defined based on the growth of criminal violence. According to Robert Rotberg, “as state authority weakens and fails, and as the state becomes criminal in its oppression of its citizens, so lawlessness becomes more apparent, criminal gangs take over the streets of the cities, arms and drug trafficking become more common” (Rotberg, 2003). According to the United Nations Office on Drug and Crimes, Afghanistan produces nearly ninety percent of the world’s drug supply and has endangered the efforts of state building in the country (UNODC, 2011).

The final indicator constitutes that, “a failed state is a polity that is no longer able or willing to perform the fundamental jobs of a nation state in the modern world” (Rotberg, 2003). Failed states are unable to provide basic services that a state should provide on a normal basis. High illiteracy rates, infant mortality, health hazards, and low life expectancy are the main characteristics of a failed state. Many parts of Afghanistan are facing food and electricity shortage. The educational and basic health care system is limited, especially in rural areas of Afghanistan (Mustafa). Meanwhile, the narcotics trade makes up the majority of Afghanistan’s criminal economy. The trappings of the narcotics trade have been fully integrated into the Afghan society and are difficult to overcome. The drug traffickers enjoy entrenched financial and physical power in Afghanistan, and the governmental authorities sometimes support it (Ghani, 2008). In addition to all these, Afghanistan has the second highest maternal mortality rate; 1600 women out of 100,000 die during the pregnancy, and life expectancy is only 44 years (UNICEF, 2011).

Conclusion

After a long presence of international community and foreign support, Afghanistan still is suffering for high levels of corruption, insecurity, insurgency and low levels of basic infrastructure. Although, efforts have been made and success has been achieved in many areas, but the outcome of these endeavors are limited. All the efforts to build a sustainable and stable state deem unattainable. The international community and the Afghan government adopted different approaches, but they proved to be ineffective. State building initiatives were undertaken by different international actors to support the newly established Afghan Government, but all the efforts were in vain due to the low efficiency of the central government and the other aforementioned factors. Based on these criteria assessed in this small overview, Afghanistan’s status as a fully functioning state is a matter of suspicion. The central government is unable to provide basic services outside Kabul and its control has been restricted in many parts of country by Taliban forces, warlords, drug dealers, and tribal elders. According to the indicators for a failed state, there has been unequal treatment economically in favor of family or clan members of those in power. Also, there are high rates of infant and maternal mortality and life expectancy is one of lowest in the world. Drug trade is controlling many parts of the country and constitutes a major part of the Afghan GDP. Corruption is widespread and has led to distrust between the public and the government. It is a matter of further research to conclude Afghanistan as complete failed state, failing, or otherwise.

Author Biography

Seema Habib studied Masters of Public Policy at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, at the University of Erfurt, Germany, and received the Certificate of Defense Lawyer from Legal Aid Organization of Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan. She previously studied Law at the University of Kabul, Afghanistan and is now  volunteering with the Research and Public Policy and Income Tax Clinic, WoodGreen Community Services and the Afghan Women Organization in Toronto, Canada.

Social Media Link: ca.linkedin.com/in/seemahabib/

*Cover image ‘Children Play at Sosmaqala IDP Camp in Afghanistan’ by the United Nations

By Seema Habib

This analytical piece by Seema Habib, a graduate of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy from Afghanistan, investigates the factors that are often cited as reasons for the failure of the Afghan state, and questions whether or not it really has failed.

States have emerged in different forms throughout history, from the ancient Egyptian time to the city-states of Greece, from the Roman Empire to the nation states of Westphalia. Historically, states were responsible for the security in their territory and were productive in providing basic services to the public, whether on a large or small scale. Ever since the colonial period, the state has always been authoritative over the population living within its territory and have continuously exercised extensive power over territories under their control. Nowadays, since the emergence of the concept of a sovereign state, states enjoy equal opportunity to represent their population, geography and are generally considered immune from third party intervention.

Indeed, states are the main and sole actors in world politics and international relations. They are the ultimate end of power in decision-makings in their territory, but there are some situations where the existence of such a powerful actor is deemed vulnerable or incomplete. There are certain criteria for a state to fulfill in order to legitimize its existence; inability in their operation can lead to its complete collapse or its partial functionality. These states are defined as failing, fragile, or failed. After a prolonged history of war and civil unrest, Afghanistan has been counted among failing or even sometimes failed states.

Notion of a failed state

States are considered to be the main actor in world politics and international relations. Their existence marks the survival of the international relations. In this modern era, there have been concerns over the collapse of this concept. In the course of recent times, some states were marked as “collapsed states”, whereas others were defined as failed, failing, or fragile states. The failed state concept was first promoted by both Tony Blair’s government in the UK and the administration of George W. Bush in the US (Warnock, 2008. These states were often associated with their inability to enforce laws and to use legitimate force over their populations (Risse & Lehmkuhl, 2006). In one of the articles published through Radio Free Europe, Abbas Djavadi defines the term failed state as, “If a government can’t physically control its territory, has no, or only a limited, monopoly on the legitimate use of force, cannot adopt and enforce decision binding for the whole country is unable to provide basic public services and cannot represent the whole country in the international community, that state is a failed state.” (Djavadi, 2009) Also, a definition by World News glossary of terms quoted by Mustafa Qasim defines Fragile, failing, or weak states as states where the national or central government ceases to retain control over much of the country due to a prolonged civil war or political crisis. Moreover, failed states cannot provide basic security or public services to their citizens, and corruption is present on a large scale. It is also concerned with increased criminal violence (Mustafa). By considering these definitions, certain elements come to the forum that define the prospects of a failing or failed state. In the next section, different indicators of a failed or failing state are examined to assess where Afghanistan stands in terms of failing or failed states.

Examination of Indicators in the context of Afghanistan

The first indicator of a failed state is insecurity where a state fails to provide security to its citizens. If a state is unable to establish an atmosphere of security, it is considered to have lost its legitimacy and power to offer security to the population living under it (Rotberg, 2003). Despite the huge support by its international partners, the current Afghan government was unable to provide security to its citizens, with insecurity being on the rise (Afghan-Women- Council, 2007). An increase in insurgency is also considered to be a qualifying sign for failing states, as it is often connected to inability of the government in its taken measures ensuring safety of its citizens.

Corruption is another criterion to assess whether a state is failed or not. It is obvious that corruption exists in many states, but in failed states it is widespread, entrenched, and is found on an unusually large scale. Robert Rotbergconcludes that “widespread petty or lubricating corruption as a matter of course, but escalating levels of venal corruption mark failed states” (Rotberg, 2003). Based on the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International, Afghanistan is among the most vulnerable countries to corruption and is listed as one of the most bottom ranking countries in terms of the seriousness of the corruption. It is ranked 175th along North Korea and Somalia countries and is filed as the most corrupt country in the world (Transparency-International, 2013). In 2010, the Integrity Watch Afghanistan conducted a survey that covered the 32 provinces of Afghanistan; it concluded that corruption is perceived as the third biggest problem by the respondents (Integrity-Watch- Afghanistan, 2010). Now, if we look into the indicators, excessive levels of corruption in Afghanistan may bring it in the category of the failed states.

The third indicator for failed states is that it offers unequal economic opportunities only for a few privileged. Those around the ruler or the ruling cluster get the most from it and they become richer, while the less fortunate become poorer. According to Robert Rotbergin failed states, “the nation state’s responsibility to maximize the well being and personal prosperity of all citizens is conspicuously absent, if it ever existed” (Rotberg, 2003). It has been obvious in Afghanistan that the family members of the ruling circle have benefited the most from the economic ventures in the country. Mahmood Karzai, the brother of the president, gained millions of dollars from the financial resources of Kabul Bank, a private bank in Kabul, which was later declared insolvent. Its insolvency was due to irregularities of its financial resources and illegal investments in which the brother of Hamid Karzai was also considered to be involved (Higgins, 2010). All of its stakeholders’ assets were frozen except Mahmood Karzai’s due to his support from the government (Bloomberg, 2010). There are many other cases where family members of Afghan incumbents were privileged by economic gains through government sources.

The fourth indicator of failed states is the loss of control over its territory, fully or partially. Robert Rotbergstates that “in contrast to the strong states, failed states cannot control their borders. They lose authority over sections of territory. Often, the expression of official power is limited to a capital city and one or more ethnically specific zones” (Rotberg, 2003). This is also happening in Afghanistan where central authority has no control over some parts of the rural areas. The Taliban, warlords, and tribal leaders rule several parts of the country. The authority of the central government barely extends outside Kabul and other key parts of country (Djavadi, 2009). The organization of Fund for Peace reports that the Afghan government lacks authority in the areas where drug lords operate. This confirms the fragility of the Afghan state in its lack of a strong presence in the country.

Another indicator of state failure is defined based on the growth of criminal violence. According to Robert Rotberg, “as state authority weakens and fails, and as the state becomes criminal in its oppression of its citizens, so lawlessness becomes more apparent, criminal gangs take over the streets of the cities, arms and drug trafficking become more common” (Rotberg, 2003). According to the United Nations Office on Drug and Crimes, Afghanistan produces nearly ninety percent of the world’s drug supply and has endangered the efforts of state building in the country (UNODC, 2011).

The final indicator constitutes that, “a failed state is a polity that is no longer able or willing to perform the fundamental jobs of a nation state in the modern world” (Rotberg, 2003). Failed states are unable to provide basic services that a state should provide on a normal basis. High illiteracy rates, infant mortality, health hazards, and low life expectancy are the main characteristics of a failed state. Many parts of Afghanistan are facing food and electricity shortage. The educational and basic health care system is limited, especially in rural areas of Afghanistan (Mustafa). Meanwhile, the narcotics trade makes up the majority of Afghanistan’s criminal economy. The trappings of the narcotics trade have been fully integrated into the Afghan society and are difficult to overcome. The drug traffickers enjoy entrenched financial and physical power in Afghanistan, and the governmental authorities sometimes support it (Ghani, 2008). In addition to all these, Afghanistan has the second highest maternal mortality rate; 1600 women out of 100,000 die during the pregnancy, and life expectancy is only 44 years (UNICEF, 2011).

Conclusion

After a long presence of international community and foreign support, Afghanistan still is suffering for high levels of corruption, insecurity, insurgency and low levels of basic infrastructure. Although, efforts have been made and success has been achieved in many areas, but the outcome of these endeavors are limited. All the efforts to build a sustainable and stable state deem unattainable. The international community and the Afghan government adopted different approaches, but they proved to be ineffective. State building initiatives were undertaken by different international actors to support the newly established Afghan Government, but all the efforts were in vain due to the low efficiency of the central government and the other aforementioned factors. Based on these criteria assessed in this small overview, Afghanistan’s status as a fully functioning state is a matter of suspicion. The central government is unable to provide basic services outside Kabul and its control has been restricted in many parts of country by Taliban forces, warlords, drug dealers, and tribal elders. According to the indicators for a failed state, there has been unequal treatment economically in favor of family or clan members of those in power. Also, there are high rates of infant and maternal mortality and life expectancy is one of lowest in the world. Drug trade is controlling many parts of the country and constitutes a major part of the Afghan GDP. Corruption is widespread and has led to distrust between the public and the government. It is a matter of further research to conclude Afghanistan as complete failed state, failing, or otherwise.

Author Biography

Seema Habib studied Masters of Public Policy at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, at the University of Erfurt, Germany, and received the Certificate of Defense Lawyer from Legal Aid Organization of Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan. She previously studied Law at the University of Kabul, Afghanistan and is now  volunteering with the Research and Public Policy and Income Tax Clinic, WoodGreen Community Services and the Afghan Women Organization in Toronto, Canada.

Social Media Link: ca.linkedin.com/in/seemahabib/

*Cover image ‘Children Play at Sosmaqala IDP Camp in Afghanistan’ by the United Nations

Protecting Asgard, or the Ragnarök beneat the Northern Lights (Conclusions).

Three are the sons of Loki: Hel, Fenrir and Jörmundgandr. Three are the corners of the High North Strategic Triangle: Finland, The Arctic/High North and the Baltic region. The three sons can unleash the Ragnarök and make the terrible Naglfar and Garmr appear. A lack of capacity in Sweden to secure all three corners of the high north strategic triangle might encourage Russia to exert political and military pressure, to release its own Naglfar and Garmr, on the aforementioned areas or even the core of the triangle, Sweden. And such problems in the High North will have consequences for Sweden’s neighbours in Finland and even in the Baltics. The renewed aggressive and expansionistic actions made recently towards Ukraine by a Russia adopting an openly confrontational behaviour towards the West, has made the possibility of confrontation in the arctic region a highly likely scenario.

The Baltic countries and the Swedish interests that lie there are the most vulnerable of all, not only because of their proximity to Russia but also because of the Russian minorities who reside there that might be used as an alibi for a potential invasion and annexation just as what happened in Crimea. If this were to happen not only would Sweden lose its buffer zone but also most of its economic investments and revenues in the region.

Finland also has the problem of sharing a large border with Russia and is therefore also vulnerable to any attack from Russia. Finland does not have any significant Russian minority but it was part of the Russian Empire from 1809 to 1917 following an invasion against the then Swedish territory. And it seems that such a history could be used as a possible argument for Russia to invade the country as a whole; according to Withnall (2014), a former advisor of President Putin has warned of a possible intention to argue that the grant of Finland’s independence was a way to repair the mistakes that the Bolsheviks and the Communists made against the country[i]. Even if such intentions are not totally accurate, they, along with the aggression from the Soviet Union against Finland in the late 30’s and the relationships both nations had after the World War II, might provide a hint of what is to come. To make matters worse, for Russia Finland occupies an important strategic position when it comes to preventing invasion and protecting St Petersburg (Puheloinen, 1999)[ii].

The High North/Arctic has the potential to become the next geopolitical hotspot of the 21st century, if it has not become so already. Russia clearly wants to secure by any means (military mostly) its interests and the High North/Arctic, especially when it is considered the resources that could be exploited or invested in there (along with other economic activities) that the Russian economy desperately needs. And it must be reiterated that Russia perceives the High North/Arctic as a strategic zone to keep any western “intrusion” away, meaning that Russia will wage in a very assertive way the contest for the control of the aforementioned resources.

If Russia dared to invade a sovereign country simply because it began to stray off the track of its intended interests (and to harm the interest of the West, mostly that of the European Union), the possibility of Russia invading or attacking a Scandinavian nation just because of a tension regarding the Arctic or because it wants to level-up its political strength is not so unimaginable. And even if Russia threatens the Baltic States instead of Scandinavia, Finland and Sweden inevitably will end up involved due to the proximity of the area to their own territory[iii]. To hold the idea of an Arctic as a stable and peaceful place where institutions, dialogue and cooperation will mark the pace of relations is at this point a wishful and unrealistic perspective, and Sweden must assess the situation in order to realise the extent of the threat lurking nearby.

The fact that Sweden has been shrinking and reshaping its armed forces to perform missions that belong to a world in which the strategic mind-set is based upon the idea that the era of contest between great powers has become a thing of the past, and where small conflicts and humanitarian operations are the main tasks of European militaries, is proving to be a mistake in a world that it is witnessing the renewal of such Great Powers competing. And this resurgence of national interest based behaviour puts the Arctic squarely on the map as a future region for conflict [iv]. Moreover, the recent actions of Russia have simply blunted the idea of a cooperative Russia contributing at keeping the stable and peaceful environment on the continent. Both the Georgia war in 2008 and the Ukraine crisis in 2014 show that the Russian threat was and still is a reality and will be a reality whether the West wants to accept it or not.

Following this, the first step that Sweden must take in order to secure the High North/Arctic area along with the Triangle as a whole and the integrity of its core is to implement a re-armament program that reinforces not only the quality of the Swedish armed forces but also its quantity to a reasonable level to defend its national territory and secure the corners of the Triangle, as well as to provide a credible and strong cooperation with and to the neighbouring nations, either Scandinavian or Baltic.

Aviation is an area that has been well looked after by Sweden during the last two decades and the SAAB JAS 39 Gripen is a very good platform to execute defence missions. However it could be optimised further to take a more aggressive role that could improve its deterrence function helping to prevent or deter intrusions into Swedish airspace. Very recently an airliner operated by Scandinavian Airlines nearly collided with an intrusive Russian Il – 20 intelligence aircraft near Malmö, in southwest Sweden[v]. The good news is that such a move is actually being untertaken, with the Gripen being modified to deploy cruise missiles increasing the strike capacities of the multi-mission aircraft and their deterrence capacities too[vi]. In addition, if Sweden were to join NATO, the cruise missiles could be armed with non-conventional warheads under special NATO policies and instances for non-conventional weaponry.

Sweden’s navy could also be reinforced with the introduction of more Visby class stealth corvettes or similar models, along with the overhauling of the very effective and famous Swedish submarine fleet to deny Russian vessels the possibility of sailing in Swedish and its friend nations’ territorial waters or block any attempt by the Russian fleet to raid the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland. However the problems regarding political decisions and technical issues on the new submarines needs to be cleared if Sweden really wants to have a powerful submarine branch to face the Russian surface fleet[vii].

Sweden’s army could also enhance its winter & arctic warfare preparation and develop new land combat systems in order to prepare the country to repel any Russian incursion on either Finnish or Swedish soil.

Sweden is already seeking to deepen its cooperation with Norway, Denmark, Finland and Estonia under the Nordic Defence Cooperation but further cooperation with countries such as Poland would be smart [viii].

Sweden must take a decisive role in the task of defending the High North/Arctic and Scandinavia against any aggressive Russian attitude, even at the slight political threat. By doing so it can promote the integration of the Scandinavian Defence Industries and other related industries as well as of the respective nations’ Armed Forces, pushing for an efficient supply of material and the development of different combat systems in the sea, land and aerospace realms. If this is made, Scandinavia can even supply the Baltic armies under NATO frameworks with military hardware and training, thus the need to enhance the cooperation between Scandinavia and the Baltics.

In the face of the renewed Russian threat, Sweden must consider along with Finland the very serious possibility of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization[ix]. Neutrality for both nations is no longer feasible and given the fact that the balance of power is firmly with Russia, to remain so would just decrease the possibility of both nations’ ability to defend themselves effectively. And now that there is a certainty of the future behaviour of Russia, political considerations should be discarded in favour of gaining a (collective) defence of Sweden and Finland. But Sweden especially must prove to NATO that it will be an important member as Norway has been, thus the aforementioned leading role and increasing of its armed forces in both quality and quantity are a must[x]. The Russian threat is a harsh but true reality that Sweden and other nations must face, especially when Russia simply mocks through a video the Swedish Military power and suggest by a “joke” that Sweden should join Russia instead of NATO[xi]. Such attitude and certain Russian activities are fostering great concern in Sweden[xii].

Following this, should Sweden then abandon the Nordic Defence Cooperation and other regional alliances schemes (like the ones it has with some Baltic nations)? The answer in such a case is certainly no.

Firstly, some NATO countries are also Arctic Nations and Scandinavian Nations. This means that the Nordic Defence Cooperation, instead of being discarded, could actually be integrated as a military region within the NATO operational and political structures. This would provide NATO with the advantage of covering the entire Scandinavian theatre of operations thus having a Nordic wing, making it much easier for the Alliance to deter Russia and to also have a more firm grounding in the Arctic region and have an integrated Artic/Scandinavian Command. In addition to this, the Alliance would also have full coverage from the Arctic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea, covering completely the Russian and Belarussian borders.

Secondly, the Baltic Nations are also NATO nations and if Sweden and Finland decide to join NATO, things would be much easier when it comes to securing the corners of the Stategic Triangle and for the latter to guarantee its own integrity and avoid the nasty situations the country saw in 1809 and in the Winter of 1939 – 40[xiii].

Thirdly, such integration can help both NATO and the EU guarantee their own defence (their own continental defence) against the Russian threat, and might even provide the EU with enough teeth to secure its interest at the Arctic and also to deter Russia.

And last but not least, the preservation of the frameworks provided by the Nordic Defence Cooperation can help not only Sweden but all of Scandinavia to boost their own economies by enhancing the defence sectors and even allowing them to create a Porter’s cluster economy model that can include indirect sectors and activities to defence, an important aspect to bear in mind given the stormy conditions of the European economy as a whole. Such a cluster can also act in benefit of NATO by simply having a selected and ample branch of hardware and technology, not to mention the potential collaboration between Sweden and the European members of the alliance[xiv].

In conclusion, the three corners of the Triangle are to be protected and secured by Sweden through enhanced alliances with both Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as a full overhauling and expansion of the Armed Forces (plus the introduction of more and new assets capable to deter and defeat the Russian threat) and by joining – with Finland – NATO. The integration of the Nordic Defence Cooperation is a good possibility to do so and can help both NATO and Sweden in meeting their strategic interest in Scandinavia, the High North/Arctic and its vicinities. Cooperation could also go beyond Scandinavia and the Baltics and include Poland, a nation that will be a strategically important in deterring Russia and to address any tension that the later wants to exert following a conflict at the Arctic, and against the West in general. Also, a cooperation of that kind can strengthen the local economies via the defence sector, where the gains can include the development of assets needed to patrol the skies over the Baltics, Finland, the Arctic Ocean and Lapland, as well as the waters at the Baltic Sea, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Svalbard and the Arctic Ocean against any intruding Russian naval and aerial assets. But it is clear that Sweden must increase and strengthen its armed forces to secure its strategic interests and secure its High North/Arctic interests as well, not to mention to avoid the Ragnarök by one of the mentioned three corners of the Triangle, which are clearly interconnected.

Only through a military build-up at the same scale of the Cold War plus a joining of NATO can help Sweden to secure other priorities and objectives that are non-military related in the High North/Arctic, not to mention the integrity of the country itself. This, of course needs overall a change of mentality where reliance on an obsolete neutrality policy and a wishful approach based on cooperation and institutions are to be changed by a more assertive and realist approach within an area that is going to be a very important source of international tensions and competition.

The Russians are coming. The Ragnarök is waiting. Sweden must be prepared.

Sources:

Cenciotti, D (2014). A SAS Boeing 737 had to change its course at the last moment so as not to collide with a Russian Il-20 off Malmö, Sweden. Retrieved from: http://theaviationist.com/2014/05/09/il-20-near-collides-with-sas-flight/ on 09.05.2014.

Defensenews (2014). Sweden to Arm Fighter Jets With Cruise Missile ‘Deterrent’. Retrieved from: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140424/DEFREG01/304240023 on 24.04.2014.

O’Dwyer, G (2014). Finland Builds Multiple Defense Partnerships With NATO, Sweden. Retrieved from: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140510/DEFREG01/305100024 on 10.05.2014.

Puheloinen, A (1999). Russia’s Geopolitical Interests in the Baltic Area (Ruhala, K; Ed.). Finnish Defence Studies, (12). National Defence College: Helsinki, Finland.

The Local (2013). Report confirms ‘one – week defence’ analysis. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20130215/46212 on 20.05.2014.

The Local (2013). Russia mocks Sweden’s lack of military might. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20130301/46476 on 05.04.2014.

The Local (2014). ‘Russian plans for war on Sweden’ cause concern. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20140407/russia-ups-spy-numbers-in-sweden on 10.04.2014.

Turnbul, G (2014). Sink or swim: Sweden’s new A -26 next – gen submarine in doubt. Retrieved from: http://www.naval-technology.com/features/featuresink-or-swim-swedens-new-a-26-next-gen-submarine-in-doubt-4180729/ on 17.05.2014.

Whitnall, A (2014). Vladimir Putin ‘wants to regain Finland’ for Russia, adviser says. Retrieved from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wants-to-regain-finland-for-russia-adviser-says-9224273.html on 17.05.2014.

Yla (2014). Finland to sign off on NATO assistance deal. Retrieved from: http://yle.fi/uutiset/finland_to_sign_off_on_nato_assistance_deal/7201393 on 23.04.2014.

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[i] See: Whitnall, A (2014). Vladimir Putin ‘wants to regain Finland’ for Russia, adviser says. Retrieved from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wants-to-regain-finland-for-russia-adviser-says-9224273.html on 17.05.2014.

[ii] Even if the core interest is the securing of the Gulf of Finland in order to support the interests that Russia has at the Baltics, to do so the whole country (Finland) might be involved, if not threatened and attacked. In the worst of the situations, a double sided move by Russian troops against the Baltic States would put the control of the southern areas of Finland as a priority, and involving also a sea and air control over the area.

[iii] Just remember also the Göteborg Islands factor as both a source of conflict and a strategic asset that Sweden must protect if it want to neutralize the advantages that Russia would obtain by seizing the place a la Crimea.

[iv] And the consequences of such wishful thinking are being reflected by the fact that Sweden can fight ‘only for one week’. See: The Local (2013). Report confirms ‘one – week defence’ analysis. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20130215/46212 on 20.05.2014.

[v] See: Cenciotti, D (2014). A SAS Boeing 737 had to change its course at the last moment so as not to collide with a Russian Il-20 off Malmö, Sweden. Retrieved from: http://theaviationist.com/2014/05/09/il-20-near-collides-with-sas-flight/ on 09.05.2014.

[vi] See: AGENCE FRANCE – PRESSE (2014). Sweden to Arm Fighter Jets With Cruise Missile ‘Deterrent’. Retrieved from: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140424/DEFREG01/304240023 on 24.04.2014.

[vii] See: Turnbul, G (2014). Sink or swim: Sweden’s new A-26 next-gen submarine in doubt. Retrieved from: http://www.naval-technology.com/features/featuresink-or-swim-swedens-new-a-26-next-gen-submarine-in-doubt-4180729/ on 17.05.2014.

[viii] As a matter of fact, the effectiveness of Poland as a watch of the East depends not only on a strengthened Sweden but also on a more decided and proactive Germany. Its attitude might make the difference between a Europe able to guarantee its own integrity before Russia or Europe being unable to deter and neutralize any threat made by Putin.

[ix] Finland has been making some moves in that sense, by signing off a NATO assistance deal and partnerships with NATO (and Sweden). See: Finland to sign off on NATO assistance deal. Retrieved from: http://yle.fi/uutiset/finland_to_sign_off_on_nato_assistance_deal/7201393 on 23.04.2014. And: O’Dwyer, G (2014). Finland Builds Multiple Defense Partnerships With NATO, Sweden. Retrieved from: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140510/DEFREG01/305100024 on 10.05.2014.

[x] Even the dilemma of quantity versus quality can be solved by reaching an optimum equilibrium where hi-tech and professional forces can see an increase that can provide a good complement to the quality.

[xi] See: The Local (2013). Russia mocks Sweden’s lack of military might. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20130301/46476 on 05.04.2014. The link of the video where Russia mocks (and threatens) Sweden is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyPsqsH8I4M

[xii] See: The Local (2014). ‘Russian plans for war on Sweden’ cause concern. Retrieved from: http://www.thelocal.se/20140407/russia-ups-spy-numbers-in-sweden on 10.04.2014

[xiii] And also for the Baltic States in the sense that along with the current NATO members, it can receive the reinforcement of the Kingdom of the North.

[xiv] Czech Republic and Hungary, for example, have within their ranks the JAS 39 multirole jet fighters. This cluster model can even place the Swedish and other Nordic Defence industries in a very competitive stance regarding other military – industrial complexes.

*Cover image ‘57mm_stealth_swedish_navy‘ by Times Asi